Online investing continues to be popular among consumers, due in part to the fact that it meets most Americans’ requirements - it’s fast, easy and convenient.

In fact, according to research conducted by business research firm JupiterResearch, online trading households are expected to grow from 17.3 million in 2005 to 22 million by 2010.

With so many companies competing for a piece of that pie, it can be difficult at best for consumers to navigate the ever-changing landscape of online investing.

For many, the hardest part is not making that initial stock purchase, but investigating the best (and worst) buys.

So, where does one start?

Fortunately, with the advent of the Internet, consumers are only a keystroke away from a plethora of information on the good, the bad and the awful. The downside? Users can be so overwhelmed by the amount of data that the task of researching stocks can be daunting.

One company is helping Internet investors by making it easier for them to get only the news and stock alerts they want.

Centale Inc. (OTC BB: CNTL), based in Fort Lauderdale, Fla., is building a "real time" comprehensive news and stock alert application that is keyword-programmable called "Market Fragger." Forbes.com will be the first to implement this service.

The system will allow users to customize financial news by inputting their own search criteria. The information from the search is then delivered directly to the investor’s desktop on both PC and Macintosh. Centale also plans to release a wireless application version.

This capability can potentially allow the investor to spend less time searching and more time making smart investing decisions.

Forbes.com has approximately 8 million to 10 million visitors per month.

While there is no doubt that computerized trading can be faster, cheaper and more convenient than going through a traditional brokerage house, it’s important to research your options to determine what’s best for you and your portfolio.

The first quarter of 2006 is over. Now is a good time to reflect on stock prices and the opportunities they present.

Bargains are scarce. Equities are expensive. In recent weeks, I’ve heard several fund managers say valuations are still attractive. I don’t agree. Generally speaking, valuations are unattractive. Returns on equity are higher than historical levels. A market-wide return on equity of 15% is unsustainable. Price-to-earnings ratios may not fully reflect how expensive stocks are. Price-to-book ratios are more alarming.

There are two additional concerns. Most discussions of the relative attractiveness of equities focus on the S&P 500 and forward earnings. The S&P 500 is not the most representative index. It may not be the best index to consider when looking at market-wide valuations.

Forward earnings are (necessarily) estimates. Where current returns on equity are unsustainable, projected earnings that use similar returns on equity may overstate the earnings power of equities in general. This can occur even where the estimates appear reasonable given current earnings. If you start with unsustainable base earnings, you are likely to overestimate future earnings even if you truly believe you are assuming very modest earnings growth.

Assets in general are pricey. Value investors have few places to turn if they continue to insist upon a true margin of safety.

Bonds are unattractive. Long-term inflation risks make U.S. treasury, corporate, and municipal bonds a fool’s bet. There is little to gain and much to lose. The know-nothing investor who buys a top-quality bond today and holds it for decades may very well find his purchasing power diminished.

There may be some select opportunities in foreign equities. But, these are difficult to evaluate. Foreign government obligations are also difficult to evaluate, but that isn’t much of a problem for value investors, because most foreign government debt is priced to perfection. You’ll have to be willing to take a lot of uncompensated risks if you want to own such bonds.

Of course, there are exceptions to every rule. There may be a few bonds out there that are attractive. There certainly are a few attractive stocks out there. But, even those stocks that look very attractive relative to their peers don’t look nearly as attractive when compared to past bargains.

Value investors face a difficult choice. They can assume stock prices will return to historical levels, and hold cash until the correction comes. Or, they can accept the reality they currently face.

There is no logical reason stock prices must necessarily return to historical levels. During the twentieth century, real after-tax returns in diversified groups of common stocks were very high relative to other investment opportunities. There have been various reasons given for why this occurred. Many have said these returns were possible, because of the higher risks involved in holding equities. Over the long-term, risks were somewhat higher than today’s investors seem to remember, but they were hardly severe enough to justify the kind of performance spreads that existed during much of the twentieth century.

True, if you bought at inopportune times, it was possible to remain in a fairly deep hole for a fairly long time. But, if you gave no real consideration to the timing of your purchases or the prospects of the underlying enterprises, you did better than many bondholders who chose their investments with the utmost care.

This is a disconcerting problem. It may be that most investors are overly sensitive to the risk of an immediate “paper” loss in nominal terms, and therefore overlook the much greater risk of a gradual loss of purchasing power. Issuing fixed pound obligations may be the best bet for any business or government that seeks to swindle investors.

For the sake of the common stockholders, I hope many of the best businesses continue to issue such obligations when money is cheap. Corporate debt gets a bad name, because it tends to be overused by those who don’t need it and shouldn’t want it (and, of course, by those businesses that do need it but won’t survive even if they get it). The businesses that would benefit the most from the use of debt usually appear to have more cash than they could ever need. But, it’s best to think ahead. For truly high quality businesses, the cost of capital will fluctuate far more wildly than the likely returns on capital.

If, during the last hundred years, stocks really were far cheaper than they should have been, is there any reason to believe stock prices will return to past levels? The past is often a pretty good predictor of the future – but, not always. It’s difficult to say whether, over the next few decades, valuations will, on average, be higher or lower than they are today. However, it isn’t all that difficult to say whether, at some point over the next few decades, valuations will be higher or lower than they are today. The answer to that question is almost certainly yes. They will be higher and they will be lower. Maybe for a few years or a few months. Maybe for a full decade. I don’t know.

What I do know is that value investors will have opportunities to make investments with a true margin of safety. But, should they wait?

That’s the most difficult question. Today, I am not finding opportunities that look particularly attractive when compared to the best opportunities of past years. But, I am still able to find a few (in fact, a very few) situations where the expected annual rate of return is greater than 15%.

That will be more than enough to beat the market. It will also likely be enough to provide a material increase in after-tax purchasing power. That’s not guaranteed, but it hardly seems holding cash would offer the better odds in this regard.

So, is an expected annual rate of return of 15% good enough? Is it reasonable to bet on the good opportunity that is currently available instead of waiting for the great opportunity that may yet become available?

I’ll leave that for you to decide.

Trading in a bull market is easier than trading in a bear market. Many traders find they can make money trading in bullish markets, but when there is a major correction underway or when the market is bearish, they literally freeze and are unable to trade successfully or find profits in their trading.

First,when a market has collapsed, it is important to accept the fact that the market trend has changed from bullish to bearish. It is human nature to find scapegoats or to find a “reason” or to rationalise away the fact that the market trend has changed. But unless the trader accepts the fact that he is solely responsible to trade his way out of a bearish market, he will find his position untenable and discover losses that add up daily as the market bearish sentiments continue. It does not pay to refuse the responsibility of your own trading action and put the blame on your broker or your friend who has given you the "tips" that led to your losses.

If you are faced with losses from a sudden collapse in prices, accept that it is your responsibility to now institute action to get out of this situation with profits.

Secondly, while in bullish markets it is easy to trade by just buying stocks that are in initial outbreaks and just holding them and coming back again after a few days to reap profits, you cannot do the same during bearish markets.

In bullish markets, you trade with the trend, and as long as the trend is up, you stand to make easy profits. On the contrary, in bearish markets, the market goes into consolidation, and trends are “shorter” in duration or the market will go into a sideways direction, with prices oscillating between ranges. During bearish markets, we are more biased towards range trading rather than trend trading. So if you do not know how to change from using trend trading to range trading, you can be caught with short term trend changes and suffer whipsaws and lose money trend trading during bearish markets.

Dealing with traders who have gone through a series of major market corrections since 1987 has led me to conclude that there is no room for lackadaisical trading during bearish markets. The margin of error for a trading signal is much lower when trading in a bearish market. I have seen traders who are able to quickly change or adapt from longer trend trading to trading shorter swings in the market or range trading to be able to make money from their trades. In bearish markets, they are contented with smaller profits, but trading more often and in higher volumes. To aid in their margin of profits, they are able to negotiate the lowest brokerage terms possible with their brokers or to use discounted online trading platforms.

In bearish markets, the trader who range trade will be the one who is best positioned to take advantage of the shorter and faster rebounds that occur as stocks get oversold and retrace upwards. Accepting personal responsibility and adapting to range trading will improve his chances to make money during bearish markets.

Often, I receive requests from members of my stock market trading discussion group to give my views on technical analysis of stocks that they are watching. In the course of discussion, I discovered one common factor which separates the winning traders from the losing traders.

In general, both group of traders like to scan their lists of active stocks to uncover possible trading candidates. However, the traders in the winning group are specific about their trading, and have their entry and exit points well spelt out in a specific trading plan.

In their trading,they have precise entry and exit points...so that the trade is unemotional. After they have entered a trade, either they are correct and ride the trend or they are wrong and you exit with a loss that has been predetermined. There is nothing vague in their trading.

In contrast, those who are losing money in their trades invariably do not have a trading plan, or at least a semblance of a trading plan. This group of traders jump on tips provided by others without being able to check or verify the tips from some analysis, whether technical or fundamental. They do not have any idea of when to enter the trade or to exit with a stop loss.

Again, when the winning traders have computed their entry and exit and stop loss points, these traders can approach their

trading day with guarded optimism, watching whether an expected rally is on the cards or not. By watching pre-determined price points, the trader can know whether a rally has in fact begun and to start to trade in a more aggressive manner or to stop trading on wrong expectations which comes soeasily by being influenced by tips here and there. If the trade goes against them and hit their stop loss, they take their loss unemotionally and are out of the market, thus limiting their losses.

Remember, you involve hard earned money into your trading and investment.There is nothing VAGUE about trading. Every entry and exit points is calculated before hand to enable you to control your risk, if you are to become a successful trader.

Learn how to do this well and you will be a consistent trader. Test every tip and breathe specifics into your trades and you can make profits. In every profession, it is the specialist who makes the most money. Learn to excel in your trading and you will be profitable.

With thousands of stocks listed in the stock exchange for trading, how does a trader go about his stock selection? I am not refering to the fundamental approach where the trader studies the fundamentals of the company, and research the performance results of the company, check its price-earnings ratios or check its balance sheets and turnover and its dividend yield.

By and large among those successful traders who really make their living off by trading professionally in the stock markets, their preferred method seems to be the technical analysis approach.

By this, they use charting, and technical indicators applied to the stocks. They will devise filters or explorations, to scan for stocks that meet some selected indicators to show that the stocks are beginning to move or have started to move.

Professional traders who trade for a living have an array of trading tools to help them, but one of the most common tools they use to good effect is the indicator called On Balance Volume.

Popularised by Joseph Granville, the On Balance Volume or OBV in short is actually cumulative volume, where the underlying principle is that similar OBV should support equivalent price. By using this indicator, short term traders will be able to identify when there is a difference in this setting, or where OBV has outbreak already but price has still lagged behind, giving rise to the situation where an impending price jump is expected.

But how large is the impending jump? If there is indeed an OBV outbreak, and by inference the price should follow in the next few trading sessions, one must also ensure that the impending jump is of sufficient size to warrant a good margin of profit attractive enough for him to trade.

Added to this trading indicator, traders add yet another trading stipulation to nail those giant moves. We know in Elliot wave theory that the 3 and 5 waves of any stock are the impulsive and strong waves up.

I have seen much success from traders who scan their stocks with an OBV outbreak and are in their impulsive 3 and 5th waves which are their longest and strongest waves.

Armed with this understanding, when a stock is found to have just undergone an OBV Outbreak upwards and is moving within either its 3rd or 5th wave, you have an excellent candidate that will probably run away in price, and letting you reap a handsome profit within a short trading period.

Summary: TradeTech LLC Chief Executive Gene Clark talked with StockInterview about the uranium bull market, where his price models show uranium prices heading and when to expect the peak of the current upward cycle of the bull market. When will “hard” times again hit the uranium market, and how long will the trough last? And what does the future hold for the uranium price? An industry insider gives us his insights.

StockInterview: When the uranium bull market began, did you foresee £40pound uranium, now that the spot price has risen above this level?

Gene Clark:

I don’t think any of us saw £40 per pound coming. We had price projections at the time that indicated probably £25 per pound, which would be a long term equilibrium price in constant pound terms. But, I think it was a surprise the price went up so high. I think what’s going, the biggest factor right now, is the advent of the so called hedge funds or speculator fund and groups of people. The price started to go up, and they came into the market with the express purpose of buying for holding and then selling into the market later to realize the trading profit. In 2005, the hedge funds were responsible for purchasing about 10 million pounds of the 29 million pounds purchased. I think the market is now finally adjusting to the realities of primary supply and demand. It’s been a depressed market for 20 or 30 years, primarily from the draw down of excess inventories, and what we call secondary supply.

StockInterview: Will the speculators remain active in driving the spot uranium price higher?

Gene Clark:

I think there is still some room for further speculation activity. Uranium Participation Corporation, for example, is rumored to be about to come to the equities market again to raise funds for another purchase. They’re asking for authority to buy UF6, as well as U308, and different forms of uranium than they were locked into before. Whether it be at the 10 million pound level (size of purchase), I think it kind of depends on where the market goes. If it tends to flatten out, then I think there’s going to be obviously less interest on their part. When they were active in the market, they, of course, wanted the price to go up. Therefore, they weren’t too careful about what they paid for uranium. I think that’s a part of it. In the long run, it was due for a readjustment to reflect prices of the cost of new production facilities. But, the hedge funds came in and kind of overdrove the market. Eventually, what it’s going to wind up doing is, if they sell off, it could have the impact of driving prices back down below where they would otherwise have gone.

StockInterview: Did the speculators interfere with the trading efficiency of the uranium market?

Gene Clark:

In theory, speculators come in, tend to take the risk and smooth out market prices. But, it never really works out that way. They always come in and only take the risk, if there’s an opportunity to make money. So some people make a lot of money. It does tend to upset the market. If you get away from the primary users of uranium and primary producers of uranium as your market participants, then you tend to introduce more noise than you would like.

StockInterview: With that in mind, in which direction are your price projections going?

Gene Clark:

We’re actually updating our uranium price forecast right now. We haven’t decided on a reference case yet. The reference cases we’re looking at will peak at about £50 to £55 per pound in about three years, and will then drop off pretty drastically. It has to do with a selling of the speculator reserves, the uranium that’s being held (for speculative purposes). I can see it coming back down to £30, maybe below £30 per pound. Then, in the long run – out through 2020 – getting easily back up over £40 per pound.

StockInterview: Are you predicting a down cycle during the course of the uranium bull market?

Gene Clark:

Yes. It’s pretty consistent with everything we’re doing with the changes in requirements, in different cases of high, low, and medium demand. Our modeling system is projecting this. It has to do with the supply and demand balance and the cost on the margin. The way to describe it is that prices have come to a point now of higher than we would have projected them to be, such that the supply is going to evolve. The large low cost projects will reach a point where supply then overshoots demand for a few years, which causes the price to come back down. Then demand growth, in the long run, picks up and puts a lot of pressure on the supply market to be able to meet the demand. So you wind up with pressure toward the end of the period.

StockInterview: But the markets are finicky, filled with variables, and can frequently trick price models.

Gene Clark:

Here’s what it would take to shoot that down: We have a problem with small numbers, and there are some very large projects – Cigar Lake, for example. The expansion of Olympic Dam in Australia would be going from about 12 million pounds of production to over 30 million pounds, if they finish. If you shift that out by four or five years, or if the owner decides, “No, we’re not going to expand at all,” you have a drastic effect. Then you would wind up with £100 per pound uranium, I think.

StockInterview: What are your estimates on the peak price years and the bottom years?

Gene Clark:

A lot of things could change, but here is what we’re looking at. In one case scenario, the speculators are really going to stay out of the market and holding onto their stuff for a long time. If so, then we’re going to be at the peak by the end of this year. If they stay active in the market and buying, then that stretches it out further. Depending on the scenario, we see the peak possibly at 2008 or so. I would say we’re looking at a trough around the timeframe of 20011 to 2013. Then back up after that.

StockInterview: How do you arrive at your weekly numbers for the spot uranium price?

Gene Clark:

We get our data from all of the key sources: the utility fuel managers, sales staff and management of uranium producers and processors, and uranium traders, brokers and asset managers. Some are, of course, more cooperative than others, and whom we call depends on the type of information we are seeking. Since our price indicators are a judgment call, we often focus on the losers in particular recent transactions, as those will be the next to make offers in the market.

StockInterview: Let’s back up a bit. Why has uranium gone up past the levels of the “cost of production,” which would place the spot price between £25 and £35pound?

Gene Clark:

The biggest factor, in signaling the market, was when utilities went out for long term bid requests. They found they reached a period in which producers would have to build new facilities. Producers building those facilities felt, “I have to make at least enough profit to cover the construction costs for those facilities.” That was much higher than the market at the time. Basically, you reached a point where the chief stuff has been sold. Now, we have to actually spend some money, some capital, to build new facilities, new mines and new mills. That was, I think, the earliest signal of the price needing to adjust.

StockInterview: Isn’t there a ton of hype across all media channels about the “nuclear renaissance” and the demand for more nuclear energy?

Gene Clark:

First of all, all the hype about nuclear renaissance is really in the United States. The Chinese have had plans to expand for a long time. The Japanese have been steadily adding new capacity. Koreans have been adding new capacity. Indians have been adding new capacity all along, all the way through this, even before we started this discussion on nuclear renaissance. I think that phrase is really focused more in the United States., which really hasn’t ordered a plant since 1976 or something like that. There is a boom. Maybe it’s the uranium renaissance.

StockInterview: Is all of what we’ve been reading just plain hype?

Gene Clark:

There is some hype, but there is also some substance. A part of it is certainly a change in public attitude about nuclear power. If I was riding on an airplane, ten years ago, and someone asked me what I did for a living, I was guaranteed to have a lousy trip, arguing about nuclear power. When I mention it now, I get a positive response. There’s been a market shift in public attitude about nuclear power. From the standpoint of the utilities that would be ordering nuclear plants. To the extent that they need new capacity, looking at nuclear now is not off the drawing boards, partly because of public attitude. The industry has been moving through this trough period, preparing itself for a new era. It remains to be seen when the first order comes. But when the first actual order of a nuclear power plant, along with the license application does come, I think you’ll see several U.S. utilities following, probably five utilities very actively involved.

StockInterview: When will that actually happen?

Gene Clark:

I think it will come within the next five years, the ordering process. Of course it will be probably another eight years before we actually see the first power plant from that process. We’re talking probably about 13 years. That’s how long it takes. You can actually construct one in 48 months, but you have to have been through the licensing. If you don’t believe the anti-nuclear people are going to be psyched up to fight the first plant coming through, then you’d be very naïve. The first one is going to be more difficult and take more time, I think.

StockInterview: One anti-nuclear group told us they do not believe we’ll have more nuclear power plants in the United States.

Gene Clark:

That’s possible, but given the current circumstances, my guess is we will have more nuclear plants. We need the capacities, whether we’re going to build coal plants (or other types of power generating plants). I just came from California, moved here (to North Carolina) six months ago. They were talking about building gas-fired plants for base load generation, which is the most ridiculous thing you can imagine. The plants are cheap to build, but the fuel cost is exorbitant. I did a speech a couple of years ago, having looked at the Energy Information Administration’s projections of gas demand. All the growth and natural gas demand is going to be in the electric utility sector. We are going to be importing 60 percent of our gas supplies by 2020. Does that make any sense? No. We have a lot of coal, but there are lots of complaints about coal burning. In our state of North Carolina, the attorney general is actually suing the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) for the damage from coal burning of the TVA’s power plants in the adjacent state, in Tennessee. There’s going to be continued pressure on coal burning. I think nuclear has as good a shot as any in terms of new capacity.

StockInterview: Some critics have argued China and India will not be able to afford the massive nuclear power plant build up they’ve envisioned.

Gene Clark:

If you think the Chinese are going to have any problem financing things, you’d better think twice. Let’s focus on India. India is a clear case where, and it is a good rule of thumb, one percent growth in gross domestic product requires one percent growth in electricity requirement. For India to grow economically, it needs electric power. Where are they going to get it? They have coal plants there, as well. Once you use up all your hydro capacity, you really don’t have much to choose from, except coal, natural gas, and nuclear. To the extent that they can have economic growth and income, coming into their country, they would be able to finance nuclear power plants. My guess is they’re going to get the vendors of the nuclear plant to finance them.

StockInterview: Are you talking about the French?

Gene Clark:

Cogema and Primaton – the companies that construct the nuclear plants. Financing is generally part of the package. The first plants in China were basically financed by the French government. If the French go into India, you’ll see the same thing. The Russians have financed plants for developing countries. That’s not unusual for them to do. The United States may, or may not, get involved. I think there have been some types of guarantees in the past, but not at the same level as the Russians and French do it. I think those are the big choices. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the South Koreans involved in the reactor export market. They’ve pretty much developed their own technology now. They have the capability of building 100 percent of a nuclear power plant in South Korea: the pressure vessels, all the steel requirements. They can do it all. We really haven’t seen them export yet, because they’ve used up all their manufacturing capacity for their own program. At some stage, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that happen. And I think they would be able to finance reactor export sales.

StockInterview: How are the U.S. utilities going to fare in getting their “share” of uranium to fuel our domestic nuclear power plants in the context of the apparent overwhelming Asian demand?

Gene Clark:

In reality, the U.S. utilities, which tend to wait longer to contract, are going to be the ones on the losing end because the Chinese and the Indians will contract early. The implication is the Chinese and Indians are not going to be able to find enough uranium for their new plants. They are committing for supplies way out into the future. When the U.S. guys come to the market, they’re going to look around say, “Oh blankety- blank, what happened? Where’s the uranium?” They’ll be the ones that sat around. I think that is what’s going to happen unless things really change in the way contracting is done in the United States.

How to (not) DayTrade

So you’d like to earn your living DayTrading?

You have all heard the stories of losing DayTraders running down the streets shooting people?

During the heady .com days prior to 2001, (when Bush became president,) there were stocks, 3 or 4 times a week that went up from 30 to 200% a day.

It was possible, if you knew what you were doing, to check before the market opened to see which stocks were running in real time and why.

And, if you then had a fast electronic brokerage system you could dive into the market, buy a bunch and sell them the same day.

About 1% of people doing this consistently made money.

I saw one private individual make a million in one day shorting Corel. And then there was somebody who lost a bunch hanging on too long to the WWWF IPO.

As a matter of fact the bottom line is that if you take inflation into account you’d have been better off putting your money in an old sock since 2001.

So what to do?

Give up on the Stock Market let alone give up on DayTrading?

Don’t give up on the Stock Market, if you use the right system which is a simple set of formulas you can still make 30% or more on your money annually.

Using this simple system £11,000 left in the market for 17 years would be worth more than one million pounds today.

But it is not DayTrading and you still would need a strong stomach to sit out these 17 years, because some of those years would give you negative returns.

The bottom line is this; if you want to DayTrade there is only one way to do this today.

And that is with MINDBLOWING News.

MINDBLOWING News along the lines of:

XYZ corporation finds cure for cancer. ABC Inc invents Eternal Life Pill DreamCar Corp invents car that runs on water.

You get the idea.

And then I am going to use another qualifier:

You should get this news BEFORE most other people get it.

How to do this:

For about £10 a month you can get a subscription to real-time market news.

Get your Real Time Market News at about 6 AM Eastern Standard Time.

Say you find the real time news that a company has invented a car that runs on water.

Check the time the news was first released, making sure that news item was not available yesterday.

Buy the stock now with money that you can afford to burn ALWAYS USING A STOP LOSS.

Most electronic brokerage firms today allow you to buy stocks on NASDAQ only as early as 6 AM EST.

Sell the stock at 9.28 AM EST to all the traders that are waking up.

You could conceivably double your money.

So would you then trade again in this stock after the market opens officially?

No,I would not.

Too many mindgames will be played by market makers during the first day with the stock that produced the mindblowing news.

Remember the statement above:

"There have been very few days since 2001 that any stocks actually went up more than 30% in one day, the oomph has disappeared from both the Nasdaq and the Dow."

Never hold the mind blowing news stock overnight, because people in most cases will dump it on the second day.

One more tip:

Never buy IPO’s on the first day.

The most touted IPO(meaning almost all large brokerage houses were praising this IPO to the sky) cost people the most in decreased value on the second day after the IPO came out.

Who were the winners? The brokerage houses.

So, if you have money to burn, have a cast iron stomach and want to watch market news from 6 AM to 9.28 AM EST, DayTrading may be for you.

“Sell in May and Stay Away” Words to live and invest by? I don’t know who coined the phrase but I did a bit of research and yes this strategy would have worked out for you is you had implemented it over the life of the TSP retirement account. Of course we know past performance does not guarantee future results but there is something here that makes this investor think that just maybe there is something more to the story this time.

There are five funds available in the Thrift Savings Plan.

The C Fund is based on the S&P 500

The F Fund is designed to match the bonds in the Lehman Brothers U.S. Aggregate (LBA) index.

The G Fund invests in short-term U.S. treasuries

The S Fund follows the Wilshire 4500 index

The I Fund follows the EAFE index

From its inception in 1988 through the end of 2005 the C Fund (based on the S&P 500) has averaged 12.61556% per year. In the months October through May it averaged12.87611%. From June through September it averaged -0.26056%. For the same 18 year period, the F Fund averaged 3.356111% for the four months June through September. Had you sold all of your stock C Fund on May 31 and moved all your money into the F Fund and then moved all of your money from the F Fund back to the C Fund on September 30th, you would have realized a 3.616667% per year increase in your rate of return over 18 years. Let me repeat this, a 3.616667% annual increase based on only two trades per year.

From 2001 through 2005 the C Fund (based on the S&P 500) annual average was only 2.22%. Its average gain October through May was 9.24% while it’s June through September average was an appalling 7.02% loss. Utilizing the same strategy as above, our average rate of return would have jumped from an anemic 2.22% to a healthy 11.38%. That is an amazing increase of over 9% based on just two trades per year.

Since its inception in 2001 the S Fund (based on the Wilshire 4500 index) has averaged 9.314% and the I Fund (based on the EAFE index) averaged 6.56%. They show the same pattern of gains October through May, with gains of 14.05% for the S Fund and 10.368% for the I Fund annually during those eight months. They also continue the S Fund pattern of losses Jun through September, a 4.736% loss for the S Fund and 3.808% loss for the I Fund. Using the same strategy of eight months in the S and I funds and four months in the F Funds, you would have realized additional gains of 6.336% for the S Fund and 5.378% for the I fund brining your rate of return to 15.65% for an S+F strategy and 11.938% for an I+F strategy.

What do you think about this? Join the TSPcenter forum and let me know. My gut tells me we are in for a bad summer. Of course that could be a result of the pepperoni pizza I just ate.

A good mutual fund company will know how to use the investor’s money to buy and sell large amounts of securities. The aim of mutual fund companies is to increase their profit margins. The individual who invests on mutual funds also has a similar objective of squeezing maximum profit out of it. It’s a win-win situation, only if you know how to make the most out of investing in mutual funds and thus saving your money from being wasted. When selecting funds, be sure to take note of your goals and ambitions so that you can invest in the right fund.

Investing in mutual funds has emerged as the new buzzword amongst consumers in order to save money. But, for first time investors it requires a little bit of knowledge about the current market scenario. You need to keep in mind that when you are buying mutual funds you are actually investing in the shares of a corporation. You need to master the art of maximizing returns and minimizing risks to benefit most by investing in mutual funds. In terms of variety, flexibility and liquidity mutual funds are perhaps the best option.

A recent media poll confirmed that mutual funds are the most popular choices amongst investors primarily because of its risk-free nature. Mutual funds have its own share of advantages, which make it a preferred choice amongst most investors, big or small. Many people see it as an effective tax saving tool. Mutual funds have infact, took precedence over the traditional options of national saving certificates and public provident fund to save money.

If you are a starter, there are many courses which will provide you a veritable mine of information on how you can buy and sell your mutual funds to extract the maximum profit and save money through investing.

Higher risk mutual funds, however, work best when you want to make short-term investments. The Internet these days is replete with information on mutual funds. Even investors with no investment experience go for mutual funds to save money. Many consider award-winning funds as the most suitable investment option for people. But you need to bear in mind that the funds falling in the award-winning category may not suit your interests best.

Careful fund management and proper market survey can go a long way in helping you to save your taxes through mutual funds. Do not be hesitant to take the help of mutual fund brokers in case you are not sure about whether you are taking the right move or not.

Winning the battle of life becomes all the more easier with investing in mutual funds. So it makes sense to invest in mutual funds to make you capable enough to sail through even the worst financial situations of life without having any tension.

If retirement blues is haunting you or you are worried about your kid’s future take heart. With investing in mutual funds you can save enough money to lead a happy and peaceful life. Let mutual funds ensure that you do not work for money, instead the money works for you.

The Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is holding steady above 120, having reached a high above 156 in January, a level it had not seen since September 18, 1987. The spot uranium price is higher than it’s been since January 1980. Crude oil? Filling up your gas tank should remind you that oil prices are still painfully high. So all of this must mean mining companies are thrilled with their good fortune? WRONG! There’s a snowballing crisis in the mining sector, which has been kept off the typical investor’s radar screen. This new emergency could drive commodity prices to even higher levels over the coming months, and possibly until the end of the decade.

The two-decade long bear market drove many geologists out of the mining sector. Drilling companies went bankrupt. Even with the recent explosion of activity in the mining sector, exploration in the sector is less than one-third of its peak in 1981, when more than 5,500 drill rigs were running.

The mining sector’s labor and drill rig shortage has gone past the “we’re in a crisis” stage. Without qualified geological staff and drill rigs for exploration and development programs, companies may fail to get their projects online fast enough to satisfy the worldwide demand for their metals, whether it is gold, silver, copper, or uranium. The Baker Hughes North American rotary rig count is a good barometer of how strongly the commodities boom has impacted the sector. In 1999, the U.S. and Canadian drill rig count reached its nadir of 488. On March 17th, the number stood at 1546 and climbing. Over the past seven years, the count jumped 316 percent. Compared to a year ago, the North American Rotary Rig Count is up by nearly 20 percent.

During the course of our three-month investigation, we found the labor and equipment shortage applied not only to uranium but also to coal, oil and gas, coal bed methane and precious metals exploration. Ed Calvert, who runs Nucor Drilling Inc in Wyoming, exclaimed, “There just aren’t any rigs available in the U.S. You may find one, but it’s a problem finding the right rig at the right time.” His company began searching for a drill rig in September for drilling scheduled to commence June 1st. Calvert explained that the big oil companies had signed up rig contracts so they wouldn’t get caught short, adding, “Whether the rigs are being used daily or not, they are paying the fees to hold them.”

Vancouver-based Max Resources announced in early January of this year they had received permits to drill on their Thomas Mountain uranium prospect in Utah. They hoped to drill in late January, depending upon drill rig availability. Max Resources recently announced it planned to start drilling on or about the middle of March. Norman Burmeister planned more wisely, announcing in mid January Kilgore Minerals would drill the company’s Idaho gold property in July.

The drill rig shortage pales when compared to the frighteningly tight labor market in the mining sector. According to the February 2006 Employment Situation Summary, published by the U.S. Department of Labor, “Mining continued its upward trend in February, adding 5,000 jobs.” Cynthia Pomeroy, Director of Wyoming’s Department of Employment confirmed the crisis, “There is definitely a labor shortage.”

Matt Grant, assistant director of the Wyoming Mining Association adamantly announced, “There are 800 direct job openings in the mining business that could be filled today.” He quickly noted another 2400 indirect jobs to service the mining industry remain empty, begging for bodies to satisfy those positions. Starting geologists make between £35,000 and £50,000 annually. Top geologists command £200,000 and higher. Mining consultants get £800-1000day. Even day helpers on drill rigs can charge £22hour or more. Wyoming state and county development associations have attended job fairs in Michigan earnestly trying to fill the growing job vacancy by recruiting laid-off auto workers.

David Michaud, president of TheJobPit.com, finds jobs for geologists, metallurgists and others in the mining sector. A mining engineer and consulting metallurgist, having graduated from Queens University in Kingston, Ontario, and until recently the operations manager for Corriente Resources in Ecuador, he began his internet employment agency for the mining sector because the demand was overwhelming. “Headhunters who have been around for twenty years say they’ve never seen a market like this,” Michaud stressed. “For the last ten years, the mining industry fed mining graduates to the wolves. Now they need them. All are busy with no takers to those far away places.” Michaud lambasted the mining companies for their lack of foresight, “Mining companies have to expect the demand for professionals, such as production geologists, will go up with the price of metals. There were no jobs for the past eight years.” He added, “It takes two to five years to train them.”

For example, Michaud is desperately trying to fill a South American mining company’s job opening for an experienced metallurgist. “Free housing, two cars, four weeks off annually, two plane tickets, basically no living expenses, and a salary starting at US£150, 000,” Michaud sadly explained because no one has jumped at the offer. “In the field of metallurgy, including mill managers, metallurgical engineers, techs and operators, about 150 new jobs are offered each month.” Only about one-half will be filled. Michaud warned the copper mining companies were in especially dire straits to fill new job openings.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration announced in its most recently published annual report, “The U.S. uranium production industry initiated a turnaround in 2004. All U.S. uranium drilling, mining, production, and employment activities increased for the first time since 1998. More companies conducted exploration and development drilling than in the prior 2 years. Employment in the U.S. uranium production industry totaled 420 person-years, an increase of 31 percent from the 2003 total. Wyoming accounted for 33 percent of the total 2004 employment, while Colorado and Texas employment almost tripled since 2003. Overall, £86.9 million went to drilling, production, land, exploration, reclamation and restoration activities in 2004.”

While the spot uranium price continues rising, exploration companies may find it harder to recruit veteran uranium geologists, to sign contracts for drill rigs, and to operate those rigs. Nucor’s Calvert laughed, “Finding and keeping employees is definitely a problem.” Michaud explained, “Finding a metallurgist is hard enough. Finding one with uranium experience is almost impossible.” David Miller, president of Strathmore Minerals, lamented, “Expertise in the uranium industry started with geologists who made discoveries in the late 1940s through the late 1970s. They trained the next generation, which coincided with the 1970s uranium boom. That boom was short lived and fizzled out by 1981. A very small number of professionals continued in the uranium industry, during the twenty-year bear market. Now that the number of uranium companies has skyrocketed to more than 420, there is a potentially catastrophic shortage of uranium expertise.” The generation gap has come to haunt the industry.

What’s the solution? Many, such as Michaud, believe, “Retired baby boomers are coming out of retirement to fill the generational gap and ride their last metal rush into the sunset.” Bloomberg News ran a story on December 8th discussing developments in the oil sector, “U.S. producers and contractors such as Ryder Scott, which assesses drilling projects and oil and natural-gas reserves, are working harder to keep their oldest employees and recruit college graduates because there aren’t enough new engineers to go around. Engineers who help find petroleum deposits are in demand…”

Aging talent has found its way back into the uranium sector. Aging geologists such as Dr. Boen Tan, who helped discover two of the Key Lake uranium deposits in Canada’s uranium-rich Athabasca Basin in the early 1970s, is now helping Forum Development explore for new uranium deposits at its Costigan Lake, Key Lake Road and Maurice Point projects in Athabasca. Uranerz Energy’s entire advisory board consists of former Uranerz professionals, including top geologists, Dr. Franz Dahlkamp and Dr. Gerhard Ruhrmann. Respectively, they have 45 and nearly 30 years experience in the sector. Strathmore Minerals geological team includes former Pathfinder Mines employees, a subsidiary of Cogema, including board member Dieter Krewedl, President David Miller, and vice president of technical services, John DeJoia. Some of these companies bring more than 200 years of experience, collectively, to their new ventures. But without sufficient new mining school graduates to mentor under them, future exploration and development may become stalled.

What is troubling about the uranium market, in particular, is that the soaring spot uranium price shows no signs of abating. The crisis comes at a time when President Bush announced his nuclear initiative, as more U.S. utilities plan to add to the country’s nuclear fleet, and as China and India clamor for a reliable source of uranium to fuel their aggressive nuclear energy programs. Without uranium for those reactors, the power plants won’t produce the electricity required to meet their demand. As an aside, uranium mining is the stage in the nuclear fuel cycle where the environmentalist fanatics are baring their teeth. This past November, an office manager at Albuquerque’s Southwest Research and Information Center, an anti-nuclear activist group reportedly funded by Mott’s Applesauce and Ben & Jerry’s ice cream, told us when we went undercover, “We want to stop the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle, which is uranium mining.”

Don’t say the warnings weren’t made well in advance. At the World Nuclear Association (WNA) Symposium in 2004, Dr Moukhtar Dzhakishev, a Russian physicist and a former deputy minister of energy and mineral resources, presented his conclusions, “Firstly, natural uranium mining capacities cannot satisfy reactor requirements. Secondly, accumulated uranium inventories will be exhausted sooner or later. Thirdly, the spot price does not reflect the actual problems and, on the contrary, is capable of misleading all of us about the urgency of investments to be made in the development of new mining facilities.”

In his speech, Dr. Dzhakishev emphasized to the WNA, “Judging by these facts, the conclusion is evident: one day nuclear power plants will face a natural uranium shortage and it is not necessary to be a prophet to foresee this. It is clear today that the key to the solution of the major problems of the uranium market lies with the development of the potential of the uranium producers.”

This past August, Angela Jameson reported in the online version of The London Times, “A GLOBAL shortage of uranium could jeopardise plans to build a new generation of nuclear power stations in Britain… a recent report by the Asia Pacific Foundation of Canada said that there was likely to be a 45,000-tonne shortage of uranium in the next decade, largely because of growing Chinese demand for the metal.”

The upward spiral of the commodities boom is racing ahead at full speed. Depending upon whom you talk to, the labor and drill rig shortage is either very bad or worse than you can possibly imagine. If there are commodity inventory shortages right now, what happens by the end of this year, or later this decade, if current exploration efforts get grounded because companies lack the trained personnel, the proper equipment and the expertise to explore andor develop their properties? You can’t run a drill rig if you can’t get your hands on one. You can’t drill the property if you can’t find drillers to run the rig. While commodities prices soar to levels not seen in twenty or thirty years, the tight labor and equipment market could ratchet prices to much higher levels. And junior uranium development companies, with proven pounds-in-the-ground assets, should become sought-after acquisition targets by those who have the staff and drill rigs to bring the projects online.

For investors, the labor and drill rig shortage has a silver lining. As inventories dwindle lower, commodity prices will continue rising. For junior uranium investors, this might someday be realized as the “hidden reason” why spot uranium prices continued rising past £40pound. If you don’t drill for the commodity, you can’t find it and develop it. This strengthens the case for £50pound uranium in the near future. Now we understand why Strathmore Minerals’ David Miller warned us in November, “I wouldn’t be surprised to see uranium prices double again.”

Since September 2004, the S&P Retail Index has been caught in a sideways consolidation channel at between 400 and 500, unable to establish a sustainable trend in one direction or the other. During that time, the monthly retail numbers have been largely mixed. But in January, the retail data (excluding auto) was impressive, showing growth of 2.20% versus the estimate of 0.8%. It was the strongest reading in years.

Yet the initial optimism appears to be fading after seeing mixed reports from the nation’s retailers on Thursday. The early data suggests that same-store sales growth will be sub par compared to what we saw in January.

The reading in January may have been an aberration because of warmer than expected temperatures. The surfacing of cold weather in February apparently sent a chill through the pocketbooks of consumers. Also, the strong January sales may have taken away from spending in February.

The reality is the absence of a positive trend in retail makes investing in retail stocks more of a risk. You need to pick the right company. Even bellwether stocks such as Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) are struggling as far as its share price in spite of some decent sales results and same-store sales growth. But the current valuation deserves a look.

Youth oriented clothes retailer Gap (GPS) is a company that is clearly struggling at the cash register. Its February same-store sales crashed 11% year-over-year, well above the Street estimate calling for a decline of 6.80%. This followed on the heels of an 11% decline in the company’s Q4 earnings along with a FY07 forecast that was short of Wall Street expectations.

GAP expects comparable-store sales to be negative in the first half and turn moderately positive for the remainder of the year. Same-store sales are widely viewed as the best indicator of a retailer’s health.

For investors, GAP is clearly a turnaround play that could pay off if it can somehow figure out how to attract shoppers. The fact is the company has great brand awareness and this counts for something in this brand conscious world we live in.

On the upside, you have a company like Best Buy (BBY), a dominant market leader in consumer electronics. The stock is just below its 52-week high, up 69% from its yearly low.

The reality is retail spending may be impacted by the higher financing costs associated with the rising debt loads across America. The personal savings rate is declining and was negative in January. Consumers are eating into their savings and you know this cannot be good for retail.

Note: you are welcome to post this article on your site if it is financial related. You must cut and paste the bio and make sure the web site link is live. Also please e-mail me to let me know.

The report of stock research contains all the information like the fair value estimate of a company’s worth. Likewise, guides on when to buy and when to sell stocks as well as the selling prices of stocks are also discussed and displayed on the stock research report.

A stock research report is accomplished by expert analysts who are renowned in their own companies and their industries. Their reports mainly cover strengths and weaknesses, lines of business, what’s good and bad about recent stock investment decisions as well as some projections of what to expect from a company in terms of its financial health.

The stock research report also tells you whether a company is worth buying or selling and just when to buy and sell stocks from this company. Knowing such information can help you in earning back a great deal of profits from your stock investment.

In addition, the significance of such reports cannot be taken for granted, especially in a world where the market is unstable, wherein in a blink of an eye you might lose everything you have invested. Stock research reports keep you up-to-date with the latest and timely developments happening in the stock market. Stock reports are just one of the services provided by most online stock research providers.

When you sign up or joined an online stock research provider you were provided with stock alerts regarding new analyst reports plus some daily commentaries. Aside from that, you will also enjoy the privilege of having daily dose of expert opinion about companies they cover in the news. They also have portfolio alerts that tell you when your portfolio is underperforming or outperforming.

With a stock research report you will always be guided on what course of actions to take especially if you cannot monitor your portfolio regularly. Remember that the stock investment requires for keen monitoring or else you will find yourself losing money instead of gaining back more profit.

However, the stock research report is not a free service, most providers of these types of reports only offer free-day trials for new members but afterwards would require for a monthly or annual subscription fee.

Be sure to correctly choose the stock research provider; opt for those highly regarded providers that already have names in the stock investment market. Don’t be fooled by those stock research providers claiming that they have the best stock investment solutions and promises you very high rate of investment returns. These promises often times just remain to be a promise that can never be realized since the provider that you have chosen is really not that knowledgeable in stock investment.

Look for those providers that possess credible portfolios and to be really sure you may try to confirm by researching further the authenticity of their claims. You may also try to ask your friends, colleagues and family whether they are familiar with the provider you are investigating. Even better still, ask people in the stock market if they are familiar with the provider you are inquiring about. If it is really true that they are a reputable stock research provider, then their reputation will echo the sentiment.

Most people never forget their first love. I’ll never forget my first trading profit! But the £600 (1970 pounds) I pocketed on Royal Dutch Petroleum was not nearly as significant as the conceptual realization it signaled! I was amazed that someone would pay me that much more for my stock than the newspaper said it was worth just a few weeks earlier! What had changed? What had happened to make the stock go up, and why had it been down in the first place? Without ever needing to know the answers, I’ve been trading RD for thirty-six years!

Looking at scores of similarly profitable, high quality companies in this manner, you would find that: (1) most move up and down regularly (if not predictably) with an upward long-term bias, and (2) that there is little if any similarity in the timing of the movements between the stocks themselves. This is the "Volatility" that most people fear and that Wall Street loves them to fear. It can be narrowly confined to certain sectors, or much broader, encompassing practically everything. The broader it becomes, the more likely it is to be categorized as either a rally or a correction. Most years will feature one or two of each. This is the natural condition of things in the stock market, Mother Nature, Inc. if you will. Don’t take her for granted when she gets high, and never ignore her when she feels low. Embrace her volatile moods, work with them in whatever direction they travel, and she will become your love as well!

Ironically, it is this natural volatility (caused by hundreds of variables human, economic, political, natural, etc.) that is the only real "certainty" existent in the financial markets. And, as absurd as this may sound until you experience the reality of it all, it is this one and only certainty that makes Mutual Funds in general (and Index Funds in particular) totally unsuitable as investment vehicles for anyone within seven to ten years of retirement! How many Mutual Fund investors have retired recently with more liquid financial assets than they had seven years ago, way back in 1999? There will always be rallies and corrections. In fact, it is worthwhile to "go back to the future" to establish a realistic Investment Strategy. In the last forty years, there have been no less than ten 20% or greater corrections followed by rallies that brought the market to significantly higher levels. The DJIA peaked at 2700 before its record 40% crash in 1987. But at 1700, it was still 70% above the 1000 barrier that it d

anced around with for decades before... always a higher high, rarely a lower low. The ’87 debacle was followed by several slightly less exciting corrections, but the case was being made for a more flexible, and realistic, Investment Strategy. Mutual Funds were spawned by a Buy and Hold Mentality; Mother Nature, Inc is a much more complicated enterprise.

Call it foresight, or hindsight if you want to be argumentative, but a long-term view of the Investment Process eliminates the guesswork and points pretty clearly toward a trading mentality that keys on the natural volatility of hundreds of Investment Grade Equities. During corrections, consider these simple truths: 1) although there are more sellers than buyers, the buyers intend to make money on their purchases, 2) so long as everything is down, don’t worry so much about the price of individual holdings, 3) fast and steep corrections are better than the slow attrition variety, 4) always accept even half your normal profit target while buying opportunities are plentiful, 5) don’t be in a rush to fill your portfolio, but if cash dries up before it’s over, you are doing it "correctly".

Most of the problems with Mutual Funds and much of the increased opportunity in Individual Stock trading are functions of growing non-professional Equity ownership. Everyone is in the stock market these days whether they like it or not, and when the media fans the emotions of the masses, the masses create volatility that rarely under-reacts to market conditions! Rarely will unit owners take profits, particularly if they have to pay withdrawal penalties or taxes. Even more unusual are expert advisors who encourage investors to move into the markets when prices are falling.

A volatile market creates opportunities with every gyration, but you have to be willing to transact to reap the benefits. A necessary first step is to recognize that both "up" and "down" markets are forces of nature with abundant potential. The proper attitude toward the latter, will make you much more appreciative of the former. Most investment strategies require answers to unanswerable questions, in an effort to be in the right place at the right time. Indecisiveness doesn’t cut it with Mamma... in or out too soon is not an issue with her. But wasting the opportunities she provides really ticks her off! Successful investment strategies require an understanding of the forces of nature, and disciplined rules of portfolio management. If you can transition back to individual securities, you will do better at moving toward your goals, most of the time, because the opportunities are out there... all of the time.

So let’s adopt some new rules for this investment game and learn to live with them for a few cycles: Let’s buy good stocks new and old at lower prices during corrections. Let’s take reasonable profits on those that go up in price, whenever they are kind enough to do so. Let’s examine our performance based on the results of these trading transactions alone and at market cycle examination points for a smiley faced change of pace. And one other thing...

Let’s drink a toast to Mother Nature, her uncertainty, her volatility, and, of course, to our first loves.

Investing can be dangerous yet profitable endeavor. Many people have been burnt and decide not to ever invest again. This is the primary fear for investing in anything. They may give you excuse such as ’I don’t have enough money’ or ’I don’t know where to invest’. But the number one fear is always the fear of losing money. If a novice investor knows that he won’t lose money, he must have used all means necessary (such as loan) to buy as much investment opportunity possible.

Investing here can mean a lot of things from buying gold coin to real estate. However, common stock is the most popular form of investing since more than 50% of the US household invest in it. There are several ways of how to reduce your fear of investing in common stock.

Get Educated. When you know more about something, you are more certain of your outcome. When you know how to calculate the fair value of a common stock, you will know your expected return of investment. Remember that the less uncertainty you have, the less risk you undertake. You will also know more about the downside risk of your investment. If a common stock has £ 3 per share of positive net cash, is profitable and is currently trading at £ 5 per share, then you know that it won’t trade at below £ 3 per share for a long period of time. Your maximum possible risk here is 40% of your original investment.

Start Small. When you begin your investing journey, you have a lot of unknowns. Less education means more unknown which means greater risk. How small should you start? As much money that you can afford to lose. If you still have no idea, then how about £ 1 a day? One pound a day will give you £ 500,000 after fifty years of investing with 10.5 % return. Even if you have £ 500,000 right now, it is better for you to start small if you are a novice investor.

Pay Yourself First. By this, it does not mean that investors use their money to buy unnecessary stuff. Pay Yourself First means that you find investment that can pay you first as investors. What investment can pay you first? One thing that comes to mind is buying a common stock that historically has a steady or increasing dividends. There are one more way to pay yourself first by selling covered call options. For novice investors, however, I suggest we put this subject off until you get really really comfortable with investing in common stock.

Learn From Your Mistake. Once you begin investing, the fear of losing money is always there. The best way to learn is from your own mistake. But to hasten your learning curve, we have compiled a list of 15 common investing pitfalls that is frequently committed by novice investors.

Will you be fear-free after reading this column? The answer is no. Fear is always there because of uncertainty. Successful investing is about predicting the future which is uncertain. Even investing in your money-market account is uncertain. It involves some small risk. The risk might be inflation being higher than the interest rate offered. There is also uncertainty regarding the direction of interest rate. Interest rate used to be in the high single digits during the 1980s. Look where it is now.

We live in uncertain world. Instead of hiding behind the wall, we need to embrace it and educate ourselves to reduce the uncertainty. Doing this will in effect increase our investment return beyond the rate of inflation.

After you have found a profitable trading system that you already back-tested, how can you be sure that this system will produce the same gains in future?

Nobody can predict the future, your system can easily make losses in next years or can be no tradable.

There are some tests you must do before accepting a trading system, these tests swill show the robustness of your system and when passing these tests, it will be more likely to show gain in future.

Test 1:Make sure that you put liquidity rule, that your entry and exit prices are realizable.

Test 2:Examine again your trading systems and your rules (This is very important).

I made dozen of trading systems that showed great results but after more examination, it showed that i cannot follow them in real life.

Check if there is one stock that made very big gain, the system will maybe become no profitable without this stock.

Test 3:Change twice or 3 times the date of begin for the simulation, if it still show good results then it has passed the test 3.

Test 4:Change values of some parameters or variables you have in your trading system rules, you must change one value and then back-test, change another and then back-test...

If the results are not affected very badly then it passed the test 4.

Test 5:Try to restrict the system from buying 20% or more of stocks you previously bought when doing the back-test. Then re-run the back-test. To pass this test, system must show pretty the same results as before.

Test 6:Equity chart must have a good look, check some statistic values like sharpe ratio, sortino ratio, standard deviation, maximum drawdown, average day for gains recovery...

It depends on the risk you are willing to take but choose only systems that have : higher sharpe ratio, higher sortino ratio, lower standard deviation, lower maximum drawdown...

Exclude systems that have very big max drawdown, standard deviation and average day for gains recovery.

The must important factor i think is average day for gains recovery.

Its the average number of day that you must wait until your equity value will goes back to the same level before the drawdown happen.

Big values will let you wait for long times before recovering gains and for sure many traders will abandon their trading system, and that’s the worse thing that can happen to a trader because just after that, the system will show excellent results. (That’s always happen)

Theses tests are very restrictive and you will reject maybe all your trading systems, but when trading you will put your money, real money, so i think you must be very selective to make all chance in your side.

Those of you contemplating on getting in on stocks or in the stock market, should take time to learn about highslows, bidasks, charts, pips, spreads and so on to avoid up-and-coming high plunges. Staying informed is the key to successfully gaining in any stock market exchange industry. Despite, you want to commit oneself to charts and information that offers you trueness in the stock market, Forex exchange markets, and other stock industries. Failing to do so could lead to financial blunder.

About Stock Charts:

Charts are engaged in stock market exchange and Forex trading industries. The charts are guides, that aid strategists by allowing them to read, interpret through indicators, which submit signals. Inside the boundaries, the charts are treks, inherent strategies, powers, and so more.

In AMEX’s, strategists and investors base their bidsasks, or buy and sell on under and highs. The high and low in some instance have pips, currencies, spreads, or shares, which traders make good use of stock charts to keep up with these factors in stock exchange.

In the stock biz, small and large cyber-banking institutions, as well as large and small companies globally invest in stocks, or Forex stock exchange. Brokers, investors and traders use charts, which the strategists are, issued recites on both sides, which make up ask and bid phrase, depending on the stock market. The bids make up pricing, which initiates once indicators inside the boundaries programs alert traders on Seat Questioning that sprouts between buying currencies on conflicting sides. Once the brisk’ come in, the tradesman might select the option "ask" once the pricing occurs. The trader fundamentals proof on his, ’ask’ which could alter.

Quotes enable traders to set their marks on pips, which can decide statistics that rise, in excess the averages. In AMEX’s, decimals convert in some instances to match exchange within the currencies of any participating country engaging in stock exchange. Decimals base values, which are dependable at all times.

Charts read out prints of daily activities in stock market exchange. The charts present the highs and lows, as well as various other factors in stock marketing, which are invaluable to anyone trading, investing or brokerage in the market.

One of the vast growing stock industries is FX or Forex market exchange. The foreign market exchanges currencies (E.g. USDJPY, EURUSD, etc) in stocks that have reached in the trillion brackets. That is trillions in a sole stock exchange industry. This fiscal market exchange has created the hardest mark in the stock market industries. The market has overridden the preponderant United States investment branches. In fact, the Europe (EUR) pound is more valuable currently than the pound in the United States of America.

If you intend to invest or take part in stock exchange, you are wise to become informed before making any investment. Those informed often have a better chance at winning in the game of stocks. Learn more about pips, spreads and other specifics so that you know what it outlines for you.

Once upon a time in the world of finance there were three kingdoms the most widely recognized was also the most snobbish and wealthiest its subjects were affluent and known worldwide. Its king was NYSE (New York Stock exchange) the king ruled proudly over his subjects.

Every brokerage firm had a stock ticker to provide their customer with trade information on NYSE listed stocks.

The second kingdom was not so well off, it had less subjects and the inhabitants were much poorer than those ruled by NYSE, the king was named AMEX (American Stock Exchange). They could be classified as low middle class.

Now the third kingdom was the largest of all, it’s subjects range from middle class to very poor, this kingdom was ruled by OTC (Over The Counter Market). Some of the subjects of OTC were always looking to migrate to NYSE or Amex to escape the stigma attached to being a resident of OTC.

Some of the stock that at one time traded in the Pink Sheets are well known today such as EDS and many new IPO, as well as bank and insurance companies, but you also had stocks trading for a fraction of a penny.

If you wanted a price on a OTC stock you would call your broker who looked in the pink sheets to see who the market makers were, he would get on the phone to a market maker and ask the person answering the phone for a quote, the person answering the phone then gets the price from a blackboard in the front of the room and give it to the broker making the inquiry, this would take some time.

Market makers had a quote boy in the front of the trading room changing the blackboard every time a trader yelled a different price, this markets were good for 100 shares,

In those days it was possible to buy from one market maker at a price and turn around and sell to another market maker at higher price because the one market maker had no idea what the market was unless he made a phone call. So you always found disparities in the price of a stock.

Along came a knight in shining armor named NASDAQ the NASD Automatic Quotation System, which allow brokers to see the price by computer, it gave the mean market (average market) not the best price, but it was a giant step forward.

These NASDAQ machine did not provide live quotes you had to keep on pressing the enter key in order to see the updated quote.

And eventually all the better stocks were gradually included on the NASDAQ systems leaving the more obscure and unprofitable companies to trade on the pink sheet. And again the NASD decided to sink the pink sheets even further into the land of obscurity by creating the OTC Bulletin Board.

The OTC Bulletin Board started out not requiring much information from the issuer but gradually started requesting more information and now they must have audited financial and must be reporting.

All this left the pink as the only market in total disclosure darkness being the only ones not requiring the issuer to disclose its financial reports.

But on February 15, 2005 a little daylight came into the pinks, on this day a new policy was implemented, this policy requires issuers of newly traded securities to disclose adequate current information to the investing public.

This is only required of those companies which have securities quoted on an unsolicited basis on the pink sheets, and have never been listed on an exchange or quoted on the OTCBB.

If an issuer is quoted on an unsolicited basis, this means that the NASD has not cleared a market maker to enter a quote in the security pursuant to SEC Rule 15c2-11. Instead, a broker is relying on an exemption to the rule in order to display a quotation representing an unsolicited customer order. This exception has been used to trade securities of new issuers without any disclosure to the investing public. To address this situation, in October 2004, Pink Sheets revised their policy for brokers entering unsolicited quotes in a new security that has never been listed on an exchange or quoted on the OTCBB. They now require that prior to publication of an unsolicited quote in the Pink Sheets for such securities the broker must ascertain that the issuer has made adequate current information publicly available on the pink sheets website. The disclosure policy has been a good attempt at creating transparency of the basic information that investors trading in public markets deserve.

Pink Sheets is now extending this requirement to companies that were previously quoted on an unsolicited basis. If the companies did not make the required disclosure by February 15, 2005, they removed their displayed quotation from the website.

This new policy is a big step forward for the Pink Sheets and they should be applauded for it, but I Personally would like to see all companies being required to make complete disclosure.

If a company is unable for whatever reason to disclose their finances and corporate updates to the investing public then they should not be allow to trade on any public market.

These companies operating in total darkness are the vehicles being used by stock manipulators to scam the investing public, even though the Pink Sheets have taken this giant step they must remove all non-disclosing companies from the public market place.

I am not sure the pink Sheets have the authority to do so but SEC does, and the SEC is the agency responsible for protecting the investing public.

Lets congratulate the Pink sheet for this change in policy and hope that they will continue to upgrade their standards, as a direct result of this policy we at Genesis Corporate Advisors are changing our policy of not bringing any company public to the Pink sheets.

Effective immediately we will begin considering candidate for the Pink sheets but our preference will continue to be The OTC Bulletin Board because we want as much transparency as possible.

In order to have viable healthy market you must have willing investors with access to current and accurate information.

For additional information visit: http:www.genesiscorporateadvisors.com

Openwave has a very unique and valuable business in the wireless data market. It has a dominate market share of 50% in both the browser and in the gateway transitions for mobile phones. Both products are a core element in the data cell phone market.

Our philosophy is to own the critical elements in markets that appear to have revolutionary growth. In January 2004 we wrote an article saying the wireless revolution has begun. Today based on very recent guidance from Texas Instrument (NYSE:TXN) Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) and other third party data it appears that wireless data market is actually accelerating. That appears opposite common wisdom judged by the way the world equity market and Openwave stock is trading for the last month. Usually revolutionary growth acceleration is misunderstood. I believe that robust growth from wireless data will catch many people by surprise when it is fully recognized.

The browser and the gateway business are key’s to Openwave’s success. Again it is our philosophy to own critical monopolistic elements inside an industry. We often equate our philosophy to a roof over your head and the gutter that controls the flow of water. Most water when it rain will land on a shingle but will collect in high volume in the gutters. Thus a single gutter can control as much water as all the shingles combined. This model of finding the essential elements or monopolist companies, judged by the many top rankings awarded to us by third party profession indicates a very successful approach.

In wireless data market the gateway and the browsers form what we believe are that critical element in the industry with Openwave a dominate position in both those markets. This dominance of the critical elementmonopoly creates a natural mote or barrier as Openwave is in a better position to bundle, integrate, and test its products, thus become a natural extension of their browser andor gateway for every new service they enters. This bundled approach as Microsoft has proven over time not only has a higher comfort advantage for it’s users but also often could be produced at a far lower cost which the phone companies enjoy. These many economies of scale of a dominate player is attractive to the phone companies when they are both reviewing new or existing services. Put yourself in the place of a large carrier do you want to work with a new firm, with no proven history which would include additional integration, testing, billing plus on going maintenance or would you prefer an existing firm to increase their service or possibly just bundle the service into a existing product. That’s why it’s very hard for new wireless firms to make a presence in the wireless data market and the more established companies to consolidate when newer wire data services form.

It appears industry wide that the consolidators including Comverse Technology Inc. (NADSAQ: CMVT) and Amdocs Ltd. (NYSE:DOX) appear to have advantage over many newer companies. Both of those companies specializes more on the back end. The higher growth market for phones will be with the data services and in my opinion Openwave is the best positioned as the industry continues to consolidate.

About 60% of Openwave quarter is already booked not including about an addition 10% is pay as you go. That means Openwave needs about 30% of addition new revenues in the quarter. That indicates that Openwave has far smaller hurdle rate than most companies. The data supports that the number of new data phones growing combined with the rising usage of each phone with no new major competitive threats entering the market the probability of carriers to reorder is increasing.

Openwave’s high valued license revenues.

Last quarter Openwave reported that licensing revenues was over 50% of total revenues and it had 97% gross margins. The licensing revenues make up over 70% of Openwave’s gross profit. Understanding Openwave’s business model is very simple if the licensing long term grows so will the profits so if licensing long term declines so will the profits.

The last quarter the licensing saw some of the best quarter over quarter growth of (16%) and year over year growth of (34%). Over the last two year period Openwave’s licensing revenues grew at a 23 % annualized rate.

Valuation.

Openwave is now valued at about 12 time future earning and when you add up its dominance in market: The profitability of it core business and the business outlook for the wireless data industry. My opinion is this company should trade at a premium to its data wireless peers.

Risk.

The market value of Openwave stock and the wireless data industry have had many very large fluctuations in stock market value over time compared to their peers. Investors seeking to lower volatility should look to other investments.

The major risk is that management underperforms. Since this is still a relatively new management team and the stock market saying with its large sell off of Openwave’s stock that this quarter will be a very difficult quarter, it’s now time to see if the management team can execute. The stock market in my opinion has already priced in a earning problem and any minor miss by management while still retaining their long term forecast , I believe would be rewarded.

Conclusion.

It’s my opinion this is what you look for in an investment, a company that has repeatedly demonstrated, since the new management has been in place, they are achieving their goals, and have echoed repeatedly said it’s on track for the long term. Openwave has a dominate position that is becoming more embedded in most major carriers every day. With it very high margins core business over time it can become very profitable business. It appears the market for its core products is accelerating and its stock market value is down significantly; again this is what I look for when I invest.

Volatility is considered the most accurate measure of risk and, by extension, of return, its flip side. The higher the volatility, the higher the risk - and the reward. That volatility increases in the transition from bull to bear markets seems to support this pet theory. But how to account for surging volatility in plummeting bourses? At the depths of the bear phase, volatility and risk increase while returns evaporate - even taking short-selling into account.

"The Economist" has recently proposed yet another dimension of risk:

"The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s VIX index, a measure of traders’ expectations of share price gyrations, in July reached levels not seen since the 1987 crash, and shot up again (two weeks ago)... Over the past five years, volatility spikes have become ever more frequent, from the Asian crisis in 1997 right up to the World Trade Centre attacks. Moreover, it is not just price gyrations that have increased, but the volatility of volatility itself. The markets, it seems, now have an added dimension of risk."

Call-writing has soared as punters, fund managers, and institutional investors try to eke an extra return out of the wild ride and to protect their dwindling equity portfolios. Naked strategies - selling options contracts or buying them in the absence of an investment portfolio of underlying assets - translate into the trading of volatility itself and, hence, of risk. Short-selling and spread-betting funds join single stock futures in profiting from the downside.

Market - also known as beta or systematic - risk and volatility reflect underlying problems with the economy as a whole and with corporate governance: lack of transparency, bad loans, default rates, uncertainty, illiquidity, external shocks, and other negative externalities. The behavior of a specific security reveals additional, idiosyncratic, risks, known as alpha.

Quantifying volatility has yielded an equal number of Nobel prizes and controversies. The vacillation of security prices is often measured by a coefficient of variation within the Black-Scholes formula published in 1973. Volatility is implicitly defined as the standard deviation of the yield of an asset. The value of an option increases with volatility. The higher the volatility the greater the option’s chance during its life to be "in the money" - convertible to the underlying asset at a handsome profit.

Without delving too deeply into the model, this mathematical expression works well during trends and fails miserably when the markets change sign. There is disagreement among scholars and traders whether one should better use historical data or current market prices - which include expectations - to estimate volatility and to price options correctly.

From "The Econometrics of Financial Markets" by John Campbell, Andrew Lo, and Craig MacKinlay, Princeton University Press, 1997:

"Consider the argument that implied volatilities are better forecasts of future volatility because changing market conditions cause volatilities (to) vary through time stochastically, and historical volatilities cannot adjust to changing market conditions as rapidly. The folly of this argument lies in the fact that stochastic volatility contradicts the assumption required by the B-S model - if volatilities do change stochastically through time, the Black-Scholes formula is no longer the correct pricing formula and an implied volatility derived from the Black-Scholes formula provides no new information."

Black-Scholes is thought deficient on other issues as well. The implied volatilities of different options on the same stock tend to vary, defying the formula’s postulate that a single stock can be associated with only one value of implied volatility. The model assumes a certain - geometric Brownian - distribution of stock prices that has been shown to not apply to US markets, among others.

Studies have exposed serious departures from the price process fundamental to Black-Scholes: skewness, excess kurtosis (i.e., concentration of prices around the mean), serial correlation, and time varying volatilities. Black-Scholes tackles stochastic volatility poorly. The formula also unrealistically assumes that the market dickers continuously, ignoring transaction costs and institutional constraints. No wonder that traders use Black-Scholes as a heuristic rather than a price-setting formula.

Volatility also decreases in administered markets and over different spans of time. As opposed to the received wisdom of the random walk model, most investment vehicles sport different volatilities over different time horizons. Volatility is especially high when both supply and demand are inelastic and liable to large, random shocks. This is why the prices of industrial goods are less volatile than the prices of shares, or commodities.

But why are stocks and exchange rates volatile to start with? Why don’t they follow a smooth evolutionary path in line, say, with inflation, or interest rates, or productivity, or net earnings?

To start with, because economic fundamentals fluctuate - sometimes as wildly as shares. The Fed has cut interest rates 11 times in the past 12 months down to 1.75 percent - the lowest level in 40 years. Inflation gyrated from double digits to a single digit in the space of two decades. This uncertainty is, inevitably, incorporated in the price signal.

Moreover, because of time lags in the dissemination of data and its assimilation in the prevailing operational model of the economy - prices tend to overshoot both ways. The economist Rudiger Dornbusch, who died last month, studied in his seminal paper, "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics", published in 1975, the apparently irrational ebb and flow of floating currencies.

His conclusion was that markets overshoot in response to surprising changes in economic variables. A sudden increase in the money supply, for instance, axes interest rates and causes the currency to depreciate. The rational outcome should have been a panic sale of obligations denominated in the collapsing currency. But the devaluation is so excessive that people reasonably expect a rebound - i.e., an appreciation of the currency - and purchase bonds rather than dispose of them.

Yet, even Dornbusch ignored the fact that some price twirls have nothing to do with economic policies or realities, or with the emergence of new information - and a lot to do with mass psychology. How else can we account for the crash of October 1987? This goes to the heart of the undecided debate between technical and fundamental analysts.

As Robert Shiller has demonstrated in his tomes "Market Volatility" and "Irrational Exuberance", the volatility of stock prices exceeds the predictions yielded by any efficient market hypothesis, or by discounted streams of future dividends, or earnings. Yet, this finding is hotly disputed.

Some scholarly studies of researchers such as Stephen LeRoy and Richard Porter offer support - other, no less weighty, scholarship by the likes of Eugene Fama, Kenneth French, James Poterba, Allan Kleidon, and William Schwert negate it - mainly by attacking Shiller’s underlying assumptions and simplifications. Everyone - opponents and proponents alike - admit that stock returns do change with time, though for different reasons.

Volatility is a form of market inefficiency. It is a reaction to incomplete information (i.e., uncertainty). Excessive volatility is irrational. The confluence of mass greed, mass fears, and mass disagreement as to the preferred mode of reaction to public and private information - yields price fluctuations.

Changes in volatility - as manifested in options and futures premiums - are good predictors of shifts in sentiment and the inception of new trends. Some traders are contrarians. When the VIX or the NASDAQ Volatility indices are high - signifying an oversold market - they buy and when the indices are low, they sell.

Chaikin’s Volatility Indicator, a popular timing tool, seems to couple market tops with increased indecisiveness and nervousness, i.e., with enhanced volatility. Market bottoms - boring, cyclical, affairs - usually suppress volatility. Interestingly, Chaikin himself disputes this interpretation. He believes that volatility increases near the bottom, reflecting panic selling - and decreases near the top, when investors are in full accord as to market direction.

But most market players follow the trend. They sell when the VIX is high and, thus, portends a declining market. A bullish consensus is indicated by low volatility. Thus, low VIX readings signal the time to buy. Whether this is more than superstition or a mere gut reaction remains to be seen.

It is the work of theoreticians of finance. Alas, they are consumed by mutual rubbishing and dogmatic thinking. The few that wander out of the ivory tower and actually bother to ask economic players what they think and do - and why - are much derided. It is a dismal scene, devoid of volatile creativity.

A copper mining enterprise Stora Kopparberg first introduced the system of stock in the 13th century. The financial backers and owners felt the need to raise money for investment in the new projects of the same company so they started the method of stock and shares. It was also required in order to ward off the threat to the ownership rights if the company was sold, which would mean complete loss of control.

The investors got the monetary support they were looking for and at the same time solved ownership issues in case the company was sold by granting stocks to the people. Plus, they sold a part to people and still retained control over the company. Thus, the owner had some portion of the assets, some power to make decision conditionally. In return, they shared a part of the profit with the stockowner as dividend.

Financially, stock implies the ownership or share in a corporation. It gives the stockowner the right to claim a share in the assets and income of the corporation. The two types of stocks, preferred and common differ in many respects. The common stock owners can vote at the shareholders’ meetings whereas the preferred stockowners cannot vote. Common stockowners get dividends declared by the company, whereas preferred stock owners have higher claim in assets and income of the company. Preferred stock entitles the owner to have his dividends earlier than the common stock owner. Preferred stock owner gets the priority when the company goes bankrupt. Besides these two, the other types of stock are dual class shares and treasury stock.

A stockowner is not liable to losses in case the company closes and has loans to pay back. The loss of the stockholders is limited to the money that would have been made by converting the assets into cash since all the money would be used to repay the loans to the creditors.

A stock exchange is the place where trading of shares is carried out. Individuals and companies sell and purchase shares on a large scale. Generally, a particular company trades only in one specific market and is said to be on the list of that particular stock exchange. However, big multinational companies can be listed on many stock exchanges. This is called inter-listed shares.

There are various methods to buy or sell finance stocks, but the commonest among them is through the mediator called stockbroker, who actually transfers the shares from one owner to another. Stocks can be bought directly from the company also.

The stock market of a country is an indicator of its economy, which just goes to show the growth and power of the stock market.